Tony Blair is expected to bow out of the race to become the EU’s first permanent president by the end of next week if he fails in a last-ditch effort to win public support from the German chancellor, Angela Merkel.
Allies of the former prime minister insisted last night that his bid for the top EU job was still alive and that there remained a “decent chance” of success – despite Gordon Brown’s failure to pearl jewelry win any substantial backing for him during informal discussions at a Brussels summit last week.
Hinting that Blair might now broaden his campaign and push for talks, in person, with Merkel and others in a final effort to turn things around, supporters said he had yet to lay out a “detailed case” to EU leaders about how he would approach the job and why his talents were needed.
They claimed that media reports of mass opposition from EU heads of governments in Brussels were exaggerated, and that negative comments had come mainly from MEPs who would not have a vote on who fills the posts.
The strongest attack on Blair’s candidacy was delivered in Brussels by the German head of the Socialist group in the European parliament, Martin Schulz. He rounded on Brown on Thursday, saying that Blair had been a grave disappointment as prime minister because he had failed to take the UK into the euro, or the Schengen open borders agreement, and had split Europe over Iraq.
A furious Brown responded by telling those gathered, including Spain’s Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, and Austria’s chancellor, Werner Faymann, that biwa pearl they risked “permanent irrelevance” if they rejected Blair and appointed a lesser known figure.
While the Blair camp insists that the “detailed work of negotiation” on the EU post has yet to begin, they recognise that, if Merkel cannot be won round within days, they will have to face reality and pull out before a special EU summit at which the positions will be filled, probably on 10 or 12 November. “Tony would certainly not want the humiliation of rejection when the issue comes to be formally discussed. He will take himself out of the running before then,” said an EU Socialist source.
On leaving Brussels, Brown appeared to recognise that other candidates would come into play. “I recognise that there are many candidates who may come forward, some have already indicated their intention to do so, but I do believe that Tony Blair will remain an excellent candidate,” he said.
Merkel’s support is seen as key because if Germany swings to Blair, then President Nicolas Sarkozy of France would almost certainly follow, as would many smaller member states. For Merkel, however, backing Blair could be costly at home because of strong public opposition to the Iraq war.
On Friday, the German media appeared to gloat over Blair’s inability to win support in Brussels. “Left dupes Blair,” read a headline in Spiegel Online, while the daily Süddeutsche Zeitung commented: “Since Thursday, former British prime minister Blair’s chance of getting the post of the president of the akoya pearl EU council is almost zero.” Yesterday the German press hinted that Merkel might back the Dutch prime minister, quoting a remark she made about him in Brussels: “I can reveal that Jan Peter Balkenende has good German”.